Lee Soutetsu Column

【テーマ】
東北アジア情勢評価と2020年の展望

【主旨】
今年のセミナーでは、日中韓の対北朝鮮政策の問題点などを踏まえながら東北アジア、特に中国、韓国、北朝鮮が置かれている現状について議論し、2020年の東アジアを展望する。

日時　2019年10月28日９時30分～1２時30分（９時受付開始）
場所　龍谷大学大梅田キャンパス
ヒルトンプラザウェストオフィスタワー14階
住所：大阪市北区梅田２－２－２
※JR大阪駅　桜橋出口から徒歩約4分
※大阪市営地下鉄　四つ橋線　西梅田駅　3番出口すぐ　地下通路で直結
（プラザウエストオフィスタワーエレベータの前に案内係の学生がいますので気軽に尋ねてください）
主催　一般財団法人　アジア・南洋協会

コーディネータ―　竹山（李）相哲

【主な内容】
１．中国情勢についての評価
①政権内部動向
安定している。その根拠として実例、データー、分析および知見
不安定な状況。その根拠として実例、データー、分析および知見
②経済動向
・住民生活実態および国家経済（統治側の経済）
安定している。その根拠として実例、データー、分析および知見
不安定な状況。その根拠として実例、データー、分析および知見
③中国全体状況はどのような趨勢にあるか。
悪くなっている。実例とデーター、分析および知見
良くなっている。実例とデーター、分析及び知見
不透明。

２．韓国の文在寅政権の対外政策に関する評価
①文在寅政権の対外政策の方向性について
②日本との関係において
日本に何を求めているか、どのような関係をつくろうとしているのか
③中国との関係において
中国に何を求めているか、どのような関係をつくろうとしているのか
④米国との関係について
米朝関係の現状および今後の展望についてどう評価するか。

３．朝鮮半島の非核化問題とその展望について
（１）非核化をめぐる現在の状況をどう評価するのか
①うまくいっている
②進展ない
③後退している
①から③の何れかを選択し述べてください。
（２）朝鮮半島の非核化の実現可能性およびそのための具体的なシナリオ
①中国の北朝鮮非核化問題における立場および役割について
②文在寅政権の北朝鮮非核化問題における立場および役割について
④トランプ政権の対北朝鮮政策および非核化問題への対応をどう評価するのか

４．2020年の東北アジア情勢の展望と日本の対応について

５．日本の対中・韓・北朝鮮政策に関する評価と今後の展望

 2018.12
5：
KIM Jong-il’s primary concern was how to solidify his power base for his son to survive after he is gone.

Written by:Professor Ri So-tetsu, Ryukoku University Japan

At the end of his career, KIM Jong-il’s primary concern was how to solidify his power base for his son to survive after he is gone. He thought it was important to substantiate the guarantee of military support. From early 2009, he also approached powerful organizations including the Organization Guidance Department of the Party, General Political Bureau of the People’s Armed Forces, National Security Protection Department, and Ministry of People’s Security to organize KIM Jong-eun’s rallies and indoctrinations. He also made his son accompany him when visiting military units. In April 2009, he took his son to the Musudan rocket launching control tower in Hamgyong-Pukto to observe the launching of the BrightStar-2 Satellite (actually a long range ballistic missile). After this visit, KIM Jong-il made his son praise the missile technicians and boasted to the military leaders that it was the young general’s idea to launch the rocket to antagonize the strong enemy objections. It was really an awkward image encouraging a show-off to say, “In fact, my young general (KIM Jong-eun) played a decisive role as the intrepid commander to control the army, navy, and air force to frighten the enemy.” KIM Jong-il also spoke as if his son masterminded the nuclear test in May 2009.  
During that period, KIM Jong-il’s health was aggravated greatly. From May 2009, he started to take kidney dialysis. He said to his close followers that his health was not as good as before and made his son KIM Jong-eun handle all the reports received from the General Political Bureau of the People’s Armed Forces, National Security Protection Department, and Ministry of People’s Security. According to the military indoctrination program titled “The Power of Our Young General KIM Jong-eun”, all military units were required to sing a song to praise KIM Jong-eun from October 2009 and all organizations carried out KIM Jong-eun adoration programs without any bickering. However, his economic achievements was not astute. Progress on the 100,000 family housing construction project to mark KIM Il-sung’s centennial on April 15 2012, was very sluggish. They finished only 500 family housing units by January 2010. KIM Jong-eun complained about financial difficulties, “My old man (his father) does not disburse the funds adequately for some reason. I cannot push the project without money.” Among the party cadre circle, there was a floating rumor that KIM Jong-il was not fully satisfied with son’s ability and finesse in the economic affairs. The US and South Korean intelligence services analyzed that KIM Jong-il was testing his son’s leadership and ability in handling various economic projects but disappointed.
It is unknown why KIM Jong-eun arranged a program from 2010 for his father to see stage performance more than once a week. In January 2010, KIM Jong-il viewed the Russian opera “Yevgeny Onegin” arranged in Korean commemorating the 10th anniversary of the Korea-Russia Friendship and Cooperation Treaty. KIM Jong-eun believed his father would be consoled when he listens to Russian music. Nevertheless, according to many defectors, KIM Jong-il experienced a light stroke again in March 2010 and he started to let KIM Jong-eun handle most state affairs. The North Korean torpedoes-attacked the South Korean naval vessel Chonanham (PCC-772) near the NLL on the West coast on March 26 2010 killing 46. It was when KIM Jong-eun was steering the helm of the state. The US intelligence analysts viewed this awful incident as KIM Jong-eun’s reckless brutality to show off his fearlessness.
While an international joint investigation was being conducted and the UN Security Council was groping for a resolution by denouncing North Korea, KIM Jong-il visited China in May 2010 with his ailing frame to exculpate the Chonanham incident and to notify his plan for power succession to his son. On May 5 2010, he met Chinese President Hu Jintao in the People’s Grand Hall in Beijing and emphasized that the traditional friendship between the two country’s leaders must be maintained even through the next generations. But the Chinese leadership was rather stiff. Hu Jintao brought up five points in a composed tone. Without discussing anything about economic cooperation between the two countries, Hu criticized North Korea’s repeated reckless provocations. According to the state-run Xinhua News Agency, Hu demanded that KIM maintain prior coordination with China on common interests such as domestic problems, important diplomatic issues, regional and the international security situation and inter-Korean matters.  
Hu said to KIM, “You and I are of the same age (actually KIM Jong-il was one year older than Hu Jintao), but you became the national leader long before me. Now let’s look at the situations in our two countries. 1.3 billion people under my leadership never starved to death, How come you cannot provide sufficient food to your 25 million people without begging for food from China? Our two countries embarked on the socialist system at the same time, but why are the situations are so different?” To KIM Jong-il it was harsh criticism, but he had to hear more thorny advice in the presence of his entourage. Hu continued, “It’s about time for you to introduce reform policies like Deng Xiaoping was done.” The following day, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao also advised KIM Jong-il to adopt a Chinese style economic reform policy.  
After he returned from China, KIM Jong-il started displaying some awkward behavior. After viewing the comedy “Mountain Echo” on the National Stage Theater, he ordered to dismantle the theater which was only seven years old. Nevertheless, he viewed the same show two more times thereafter. South Korean National Intelligence Service suspected that KIM Jong-il might be suffering from dementia as an aftereffect of stroke. When he visited a cooperative farm in Hamgyong-Pukto, he told the farmers nothing, “It is no good for farmers to eat potatoes only. I will send you some rice.” He was no longer a thorough and whole hog micromanager. 


About the Author
Ri Sotetsu is professor of sociology at Ryukoku University, Kyoto; his specialty is modern history of East Asia and media history. The son of ethnic Koreans residing in Heilongjiang province, he was born in 1959 and educated in China. He lived in China and worked as a journalist for a time before going to Japan, where he earned a doctorate(Ph.D.) degree in journalism at Sophia University. He is a Japanese citizen. In 1998 he was appointed assistant professor at Ryukoku University and became professor in 2005. He is a prolific writer of articles and books studying the history of journalism in the former Manchuria and in Japanese-occupied Korea and analyzing current affairs in North and South Korea. Among his major works (all in Japanese) are: Kim Jong-Il to Kim Jong-Eun no shotai (On the Identity of Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-Eun; Bungei Shunju), Park Geun-hye no chosen: Mukuge no hana ga saku toki (Park Geun-hye’s Challenge: When the Hibiscus Blooms; Chuo Koron Shinsha), and Higashi-Ajia no aidentetei: Ni-Chu-Kan wa koko ga chigau (Identity in East Asia: Here Is How Japan, China, and Korea Differ; Gaifusha).

2018.9

 Article4:
KIM Yeo-jong appeared on TV for the first time on December 20 2011 when KIM Jong-eun was receiving mourning guests at the Kumsusan Memorial

Written by:Professor Ri So-tetsu, Ryukoku University Japan

On September 1 2012, the Korean Central News Agency released a picture of KIM Jong-eun and his wife LEE Sol-ju eating popcorn and walking on Changgwang street, a downtown area of Pyongyang. It was nothing special for a young couple to walk together downtown, but the picture attracted the public attention because they were the national leader and the first lady. Their first public appearance together in the media occurred on July 2012. With folded arms, they were walking in the Nungna People’s Park as they watched the acrobatic show in central Pyongyang. It was noticed that on LEE Sol-ju’s chest, there were no KIM Il-sung and KIM Jong-il badges that all North Koreans were supposed to wear. Instead, she was wearing a shining brooch on her vivid one piece dress, she also carried an expensive handbag. The foreign media made boisterous reports as if a new trend had arrived in such a repressive country. It was later discovered that KIM Jong-eun’s younger sister KIM Yeo-jong was the one who dramatized the first lady’s appearance to show a new taste to the public.
KIM Yeo-jong appeared on TV for the first time on December 20 2011 when KIM Jong-eun was receiving mourning guests at the Kumsusan Memorial Palace (now Kumsusan Solar Palace) where KIM Jong-il’s dead body was enshrined. Not many people knew that the slim young lady, wearing mourning clothes helping KIM Jong-eun was his younger sister. At that time, KIM Jong-nam who was supposed to be the principal mourner as the first son. The second son KIM Jong-chol was not seen at the mourning ritual. KIM Sol-song whom KIM Jong-il loved and trusted so much was not present either. The political implication as to why KIM Jong-eun and KIM Yeo-jong were only present at the official mourning scene will be explained later. According to Fujimoto Kenji, who was KIM Jong-il’s sushi chef for 13 years, KIM Yeo-jong was born when KIM Jong-il was 46 years old. KIM Jong-il loved his youngest daughter and always called her “my beloved princess.”           
KIM Jong-il was generally known to be a blunt and cold-hearted man, but he lavished his love on his children. He sent his first son KIM Jong-nam to Switzerland to study when he was not quite 10 and cried when he talked to him over the phone. However, when his youngest daughter KIM Yeo-jong was born, she started to monopolize her father’s love. When she was studying at an international school in Bern, Switzerland, like her two brothers Jong-chol and Jong-eun had done from 1996 to 2000, she was called Johnson. When she returned home, she attended KIM Il-sung University. When KIM Jong-eun was officially named as KIM Jong-il’s successor in September 2010, she also started her official work as Protocol Section Chief in the party central committee. Her job was to control and schedule the “Number One Activities” including KIM Jong-eun’s locus inspection tours and important meetings that KIM Jong-eun had to attend. 
She was known to be bustling around, sometimes appearing abruptly in an important party cadre meeting to see her brother without prior notice or permission. When Fujimoto Kenji visited North Korea in July-August 2012, he saw her at the Moranbong Concert and said that she looked like a school girl wearing white blouse and black skirt. She squeezed into a seat saying, “Sorry, sorry I’m late.” She was fresh and full of vigor. When LEE Sol-ju performed a role in the premiere of the Moranbong Music Troupe, a group of young girls appeared wearing Mickey Mouse attire or miniskirts to the music of the film Rocky. It was known that KIM Yeo-jong hoped to impress foreign observers that the KIM Jong-eun regime was adapting to a more open policy. She was promoted to the Deputy Chief of the Propaganda and Agitation Department of the KWP Central Committee in March 2014. According to YUN Yong-sun (cover name) who defected to South Korea in 2014, KIM Yeo-jong managed to dissuade her brother KIM Jong-eun when he was too harsh on his cadre personnel. From September 2014, KIM Jong-eun started to let her handle all general affairs except sensitive political matters.
There was no one else who could allow LEE Sol-ju to wear a brooch on her chest rather than KIM Il-sung and KIM Jong-il badges. It was also KIM Yeo-jong who released to the media a scene that the young leader and his beautiful wife were eating popcorn and walking together in the street. However, I heard that Yeo-jong was only a field observer. The elder sister KIM Sol-song was the real policy advisor to KIM Jong-eun and KIM Yeo-jong. In June 2014, Ken Goss, Chief of the International Relations Bureau of the US Navy Analysis Center, believed that up until this moment KIM Jong-eun did not commit any serious errors because he was listening to his elder sister KIM Sol-song’s advice who was playing an important role in the Organization Guidance Department of the party. She is 10 years older than KIM Jong-eun. Ken Goss said that she had been helping her father KIM Jong-il since her early 20s and was well-aware of personal backgrounds and political penchant of all important cadre personnel. Thus, she provided her younger brother with sound advice on how to behave and whom to trust.  
The Organization Guidance Department was effective in supervising the organizational life of all party members and punished disciplinary violations regardless of their positions. Even the first lady was not beyond this principle. But it was known that KIM Sol-song (Organization Guidance Department) approved her actions and KIM Yeo-jong (Propaganda and Agitation Department) allowed LEE Sol-ju not to wear the KIM Il-sung and KIM Jong-il badges. Because of this power structure, KIM Jong-il could sustain his position until the end. He always kept the Organization Guidance Department under his direct control because it was the last fortress to protect his power. Before he died, KIM Jong-il asked his daughters KIM Sol-song and KIM Yeo-jong to support and protect his successor KIM Jong-eun. He sent Sol-song to the Organization Guidance Department and Yeo-jong to the Propaganda and Agitation Department, the two most important and powerful organizations in the party. He also asked his sister KIM Kyong-hui and her husband CHANG Song-taek to look after his young nephew, LEE Yong-ho (General Chief of Staff of the People’s Armed Forces), and WOO Dong-chuk (Chief of the National Security Protection Department) to protect his son after he passed away.  
Within three years, however, LEE Yong-ho was replaced, WOO Dong-chuk committed suicide, CHANG Song-taek was executed, and KIM Kyong-hui was ousted. KIM Sol-song also faded away from the power edifice. Among his kin supporters, KIM Yeo-jong is now the only one backing KIM Jong-eun. After KIM Jong-il’s death, KIM Jong-eun seemed to be acceptable, but he purged his father’s confidants.  


About the Author
Ri Sotetsu is professor of sociology at Ryukoku University, Kyoto; his specialty is modern history of East Asia and media history. The son of ethnic Koreans residing in Heilongjiang province, he was born in 1959 and educated in China. He lived in China and worked as a journalist for a time before going to Japan, where he earned a doctorate(Ph.D.) degree in journalism at Sophia University. He is a Japanese citizen. In 1998 he was appointed assistant professor at Ryukoku University and became professor in 2005. He is a prolific writer of articles and books studying the history of journalism in the former Manchuria and in Japanese-occupied Korea and analyzing current affairs in North and South Korea. Among his major works (all in Japanese) are: Kim Jong-Il to Kim Jong-Eun no shotai (On the Identity of Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-Eun; Bungei Shunju), Park Geun-hye no chosen: Mukuge no hana ga saku toki (Park Geun-hye’s Challenge: When the Hibiscus Blooms; Chuo Koron Shinsha), and Higashi-Ajia no aidentetei: Ni-Chu-Kan wa koko ga chigau (Identity in East Asia: Here Is How Japan, China, and Korea Differ; Gaifusha).

2018.7 

CHANG Song-taek mentioned that North Korea could dismantle the nuclear development depending on the situation and he would not rule out the possibility of replacing KIM Jong-eun with KIM Jong-nam if necessary.

Written by:Professor Ri So-tetsu, Ryukoku University Japan

KIM Jong-il fortified a castle for his son, but one of its gatekeepers was disgraced soon after the power succession. In July 2012, LEE Yong-ho, General Chief of Staff of the People’s Armed Forces was arrested on charges of forming a factional clique as well as corruption. He was taking bribe from a narcobuck. The real reason that infuriated KIM Jong-eun was his objection to the policy of transferring the foreign currency earnings from the military to the cabinet. CHANG Song-taek, KIM Jong-eun’s uncle and chief of the Administrative Department of the KWP Central Committee strongly pushed this policy but LEE Yong-ho and the former minister of People’s Armed Forces KIM Yong-chun protested against the policy to maintain their vested interests. LEE Yong-ho ridiculed CHANG Song-taek saying, “You have the rank of general without any military experience. You are trying to take our important military financial resource. My four stars are quite different from your sham stars.”
After LEE Yong-ho was dismissed, CHANG Song-taek started to adopt economic improvement measures such as “The 6.28 Act” which allowed enterprises and farmers to freely utilize a part of their products as well as legalizing the buying and selling of residential housing to revitalize the flow of foreign currency earned by civilians. In August 2012, he visited China leading a delegation of more than 50 economic experts. It was to participate in a conference to discuss the joint development of a special economic zone in North Korea, but the real purpose of his visit was to request for an emergency loan of $1 billion and the expansion of China’s investment. The Chinese government showed maximum hospitality and allowed him to stay in Room 18 of the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse where KIM Il-sung and KIM Jong-il had stayed before. CHANG had a private meeting with President Hu Jintao and Prime Minister Wen Jiabao. At their August 17 meeting, Wen told CHANG that he would reserve the decision for the loan until the North Korean nuclear issue is settled and said that China needed a new law to justify the investment.
At the secret meeting with Hu Jintao for more than one hour, the interpreter was the only other person present in the room. CHANG Song-taek mentioned that North Korea could dismantle the nuclear development depending on the situation and he would not rule out the possibility of replacing KIM Jong-eun with KIM Jong-nam if necessary. CHANG’s statements were later publicized by Hong Kong media as “Zhou Yongkang, a member of politburo presidium of the Chinese Communist Party.” For leaking the details of Hu-Chang secret meeting to North Korea, he was punished by a life sentence for unauthorized release of secret information.” CHANG’s statements were serious enough to irritate KIM Jong-eun. A senior officer of the General Guard Bureau who knew about this story said that KIM Jong-eun terminated any discussion with uncle CHANG from autumn 2012.  
As if nothing had happened, North Korea launched a long range guided missile in December 2012 and conducted the 3rd nuclear test on February 12 2013. KIM Jong-eun said, “Going nuclear is our only way to survive and preserve the nation.” The young leader spurned CHANG Song-taek’s apprehension that it would antagonize China. A decisive incident had occurred in June 2013 that destroyed the rapport between uncle and nephew. Reading a report submitted by the Secretariat Office, KIM Jong-eun noticed that his exclusive ruler’s fund had been depleted. He asked one staff officer, “What’s happening? Did the same thing occur during the old man’s life?” The officer told him, “The Dear Leader kept all his secret funds in Room 39 and used the money as necessary for his revolutionary works, but now the Administrative Department of the party is controlling and using the funds.” CHANG Song-taek transferred the function of the 54th Department from the military to his Administrative Department of the party. The 54th Department was gaining large profits by exporting high quality coal to China. He did not send the money to Room 39, but deposited it in the accounts of subordinate companies of the Administrative Department.  
Upon learning about this, KIM Jong-eun became furious and ordered someone to investigate the case. A team of the General Guard Bureau went to the 54th Department to take over the secret fund, but an officer in charge said, “We cannot do anything without the authorization of Comrade Number One who is Chief of the Administrative Department.” This of course was CHANG Song-taek. In North Korea, “Number One” was a pseudonym of the Supreme Leader and nobody else could use it other than KIM Jong-eun. It indicated that a powerful clique was emerging comparable to KIM Jong-eun. It was an obvious challenge to the authority of KIM Jong-eun that all party members were required to protect at the risk of their lives the 10 principles of the party charter to uphold the monolithic leadership. The 10 principles were revised by the Organization Guidance Department by adding a clause prohibiting the formation of any type of factional clique and adoration of any cadre personnel. Some mainstay cadre officers of the Organization Guidance Department had been watching and worrying about CHANG’s overbearing behavior under the cloak of the “tiger’s uncle.” In September 2013 with KIM Jong-eun’s authorization, a special investigation team was organized with core cadre officials of the Organization Guidance Department, National Security Protection Department, General Guard Command, and Prosecutors Office to probe into CHANG’s malfeasance.    
The Organization Guidance Department had already been conducting a secret investigation since March 2013 on LEE Yong-ha and CHANG Su-gil (1st deputy director and deputy director of the Administrative Department) who were CHANG Song-taek’s right-hand men. The investigation concluded that their definite violations of party discipline and they were arrested in November 2013. They could not endure the torture confessed CHANG Song-taek’s culpability, and they were subsequently executed. CHANG Song-taek was immediately put under house arrest and then was taken to an execution site to see how cruelly a victim was killed by machinegun fire. On December 8 2013, he was taken to the expanded Politburo meeting of the party convened by KIM Jong-eun. His former comrades CHO Yon-jun (1st deputy director of the Organization Guidance Department), Prime Minister PAK Bong-ju (CHANG picked him as prime minister), and Vice Prime Minister KANG Sok-ju (close friend) started in turn to incriminate him. While hearing their incisive criticism, CHANG was trembling and tore his notebook with his ball-point pen. At a special military court four days later, he was sentenced to death.   
He was executed that very day. The shower of machinegun fire exterminated his body and a flamethrower incinerated the torn flesh. He was killed in a brutal fashion because KIM Jong-eun ordered not to leave any piece of his remains. Before he was executed, CHANG Song-taek wanted to see his wife even for a moment, but he was not allowed to see her. At that time, KIM Kyong-hui (KIM Jong-eun’s aunt) was the party secretary in charge of organizations. If she really wanted to spare her husband’s life, she was in a right position, but nothing occurred. In the course of the three generation power succession, the existence of any strongman other than the supreme leader was not tolerated. Perhaps it was KIM Jong-eun’s unavoidable fate to eliminate even his uncle and not to leave any piece of remains whom his father trusted and asked to protect the young leader.  


About the Author
Ri Sotetsu is professor of sociology at Ryukoku University, Kyoto; his specialty is modern history of East Asia and media history. The son of ethnic Koreans residing in Heilongjiang province, he was born in 1959 and educated in China. He lived in China and worked as a journalist for a time before going to Japan, where he earned a doctorate(Ph.D.) degree in journalism at Sophia University. He is a Japanese citizen. In 1998 he was appointed assistant professor at Ryukoku University and became professor in 2005. He is a prolific writer of articles and books studying the history of journalism in the former Manchuria and in Japanese-occupied Korea and analyzing current affairs in North and South Korea. Among his major works (all in Japanese) are: Kim Jong-Il to Kim Jong-Eun no shotai (On the Identity of Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-Eun; Bungei Shunju), Park Geun-hye no chosen: Mukuge no hana ga saku toki (Park Geun-hye’s Challenge: When the Hibiscus Blooms; Chuo Koron Shinsha), and Higashi-Ajia no aidentetei: Ni-Chu-Kan wa koko ga chigau (Identity in East Asia: Here Is How Japan, China, and Korea Differ; Gaifusha).

2018.7
Article 2:
KIM Jong-il was reluctant to appear before the public, but KIM Jong-eun was trying to mingle with the people.

Written by:Professor Ri So-tetsu, Ryukoku University Japan

On December 28 2011, the snow was still falling when KIM Jong-il’s funeral procession started in the afternoon. The mourning citizens crowded along the road where the motor hearse was passing. Some mourners shouted “Dear General, don’t leave us!” and some of them put their coats on the snow road ahead of the hearse. Even after the funeral, the mourning period lasted more than 100 days. According to defector KIM Chol-u (cover name), many people did not return home but stayed in their offices day and night during this mourning period. On January 7 2012, KIM Jong-eun sent his personal letter to the party and military cadre personnel to join these mourning citizens who were visiting from afar. In May 2012 after he was installed as the First Secretary of the party, he visited an amusement park and weeded the garden, and the state-run media said that he rebuked the people responsible for the park management. Defector KIM Chol-u said, “We believed that the new young leader was different from his father and he might start a new trend in society.”
Russian diplomat Georgy Toloraya who stayed in North Korea for a long time described KIM Jong-eun’s personality. “He was different from his father. KIM Jong-il did not try to do anything to impress the people. But KIM Jong-eun was trying to win the people’s adoration. KIM Jong-il was reluctant to appear before the public, but KIM Jong-eun was trying to mingle with the people.” In June 2012, he called more than 20,000 young children, 7-13 years old, from all over the country to Pyongyang to participate in the foundation of the Korean Boy Scouts. He even called the children of the parents who tried to defect to South Korea but were arrested. That was unimaginable during KIM Jong-il’s days. KIM Jong-eun ordered to disregard their family background and used special trains and aircrafts to bring them to Pyiongyang. At his first public speech on KIM Il-sung’s 100th birthday (April 15 2012), he boasted that he will never allow his people suffering from hunger again.                                                 
When the famine hit the Hwanghae-Do area known as a main granary in the country and people were starving to death, he introduced a new agricultural policy to reduce the grain collection from cooperative farms and allowed the farmers to keep a certain portion of their products. It was a drastic turnaround from his father who did not attempt it even while millions were starving to death. He showed a flexible attitude even on the nuclear issue. At the February 2012 negotiation with the US, he agreed to suspend the uranium enrichment and missile test quid pro quo for food support from the US. However, international expectations were crushed half a month after the agreement. North Korea announced it that would test-launch a long range guided missile (disguised as satellite) on April 13 2012. It was not a sudden change in policy but a planned project that KIM Jong-eun could not abandon.  
On March 31 2013, at the plenary session of the party central committee, KIM Jong-eun gave a speech for 20 minutes and emphasized that owing to the current domestic and international climate and to pursue revolutionary objectives North Korea must adopt a new national strategy to enforce simultaneous development of the nuclear and economic programs. This simultaneous development policy line was a fundamental party objective irrespective of any negotiations with the US. The Labor Newspaper explained that the two-prong national strategy to develop nuclear and economic program was a historical rambler development from KIM Il-sung’s time. It also added that North Korea adopted a national strategy to reinforce economic construction and a defence posture simultaneously when the Bay of Pigs took place in 1962 and the US nuclear threat was looming. 
As the economic plight and international isolation tormented his regime, KIM Jong-il drifted toward military policy rather than economic improvement. The confrontation with the US over nuclear and missile development naturally escalated. He always said, “We can live without toffee, but we cannot survive without ammunition.” Nuclear and missile development was also a sophisticated way of earning foreign currency. He was a ironically practical man. His 3rd son KIM Jong-eun who grew up  became the Supreme Leader and believed he could get both toffee candy and ammunition without thinking about the problems this would create. Out of this simple mentality, he carried out a missile tests breaking his agreement the US.  
While his uncle CHANG Song-taek was trying hard to improve the economy as the national top priority, he paid more attention to nuclear development. Economic reconstruction must inevitably entail the freeze of nuclear program. The two conflicting dreams between uncle and nephew clashed and the uncle was eliminated. It was known that KIM Jong-eun murmured, “If we have nuclear weapons, we have nothing to worry about. No enemy would bother our country.” He believed what his father said, “We will achieve combat deployment of nuclear weapons by 2019, and will then focus on all-out economic reconstruction to open the doors of a strong and prosperous nation.” Without any military experience, he became the supreme commander and tried to control the armed forces by purging undesirables. He had nothing else to do but to build up his image other than nuclear and missile adventure even fretting South Korea, the United States, and neighboring countries.
For the 4th nuclear test on January 6 2016, they exaggerated that it was a hydrogen bomb test. KIM Jong-eun said “We will make the whole world dread our “Juche nuclear policy” as well as our socialist platform, and our glorious workers’ party.” He bragged that he was the leader of the country. Subsequent to this nuclear test, North Korea conducted another long range ballistic missile test in February and it invited strong UN Security Council sanctions. Even China was irritated and agreed to support the sanctions. China intensified the border control and overland trading activity between China and North Korea. His nuclear and missile adventure is impoverishing the national economy and boosting the rancor of the people. He wants to be adored by the people and feared by the world, but North Korea is now bogged down in quagmire while Kim is “chasing two rabbits.” When will he realize that he is betting on wrong horse and the nuclear program is his own calamity?  


About the Author
Ri Sotetsu is professor of sociology at Ryukoku University, Kyoto; his specialty is modern history of East Asia and media history. The son of ethnic Koreans residing in Heilongjiang province, he was born in 1959 and educated in China. He lived in China and worked as a journalist for a time before going to Japan, where he earned a doctorate(Ph.D.) degree in journalism at Sophia University. He is a Japanese citizen. In 1998 he was appointed assistant professor at Ryukoku University and became professor in 2005. He is a prolific writer of articles and books studying the history of journalism in the former Manchuria and in Japanese-occupied Korea and analyzing current affairs in North and South Korea. Among his major works (all in Japanese) are: Kim Jong-Il to Kim Jong-Eun no shotai (On the Identity of Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-Eun; Bungei Shunju), Park Geun-hye no chosen: Mukuge no hana ga saku toki (Park Geun-hye’s Challenge: When the Hibiscus Blooms; Chuo Koron Shinsha), and Higashi-Ajia no aidentetei: Ni-Chu-Kan wa koko ga chigau (Identity in East Asia: Here Is How Japan, China, and Korea Differ; Gaifusha).

2018.4 
Article 1: 　
I hope this letter will be read by KIM Jong-eun

Written by:Professor Ri So-tetsu, Ryukoku University Japan


Dear Chairman KIM Jong-eun:
I hope this letter will be translated into Korean and will be read by you. Over several decades I have become deeply interested in your father KIM Jong-il’s life. I spent my younger days under the unmistakable cultural influence of your country. I grew up in a small village in Heilongjiang Province in northeast China where many Koreans moved into from the Korean peninsula during the 1930’s. The Winter were so cold that the villagers virtually went into hibernation. My mother was a native of the southern part of the Korean peninsula. She missed her hometown so much. Her only solace at the time was to listen to Korean radio broadcast. I was also fond of listening to radio Pyongyang. When Radio Pyongyang was broadcasting “Memoirs of Anti-Japanese Struggles” during the 1970s, we became infatuated. Besides the Radio Broadcast, we also liked North Korean movies and were fascinated by the beautiful melodies, actresses, and stunning displays. When I was a middle school boy, I could not sleep for many nights after watching the “Flower Girl.” At the time so many Chinese people were fascinated by your country.  
However, after China introduced its reform and open policies, our fascination with North Korea gradually faded away. When I was an university student in Beijing, I started to discover that there was a broader world and I went to Japan to further my academic pursuits. As I learned more about the world, I started to compare North Korea with other countries. The focus of my study was modern Asia and media history and eventually I started learning more about North Korea. There, I noticed the discrepancy between the North Korea of my younger days and authenticated facts in reference materials. Radio Pyongyang used to say that North Korea was able to produce 8 million tons of grain a year during the 1970s, but it has dropped to 4 million tons now and there is no sign that it will increase without any drastic change in national policy. I grew up in China which is also a socialist country, and I became curious about factors made the two countries so different.  
I quickly discovered that the fascinating movies and lyrical melodies I heard during my young days were simply a bravado and bluster concocted by your father. The reason why I wanted to write this book, the unknown story of KIM Jong-il, was because I believed that your father was the very culprit who made North Korea virtually, an inferno on earth. KIM Jong-il himself was responsible for bringing his country down to one of the poorest countries in the world. I wonder how much you really know about your father. As I learned more about your father, I came to believe life that for the masses is futile and transient. What did he really leave behind? I tried to condense it to three points. He wanted to live long. He mustered thousands of researchers to find out the secrets of longevity, collected elixirs from all over the world, but he could not live longer than 70 years. He enjoyed his life enough until that age. But the problem was his lack of moral standard. He enjoyed absolute power and a luxurious life at the expense of the starving masses while committing intolerable human rights violations.  
There is no excuse for a national leader to see millions starving to death while he enjoys extravagance. We know he worked hard. He did not sleep more than four hours a day. He went around for locus inspection during daytime, and he stayed in his office reading reports until late night. But what good did it do for anyone else other than to solidify his power? When he went out, all traffic was interrupted for his security and the secret police was deployed in the 10km radius from his destination. He was accompanied by special cooks, doctors, singers, and dancers. What good did it do for the masses? He had an artistic aptitude of a movie director, but he was always hard on the people with ideological surveillance. The consequence brought economic rupture and social devastation.  
Your father tried to challenge the relations with US with nuclear development. Your father knew he was a dictator and said he would face the same fate as Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi if he was not protected by nuclear weapon, but the reason for these men’s downfull was not related to the possession of nuclear weapons. In our world, there are many strong and prosperous countries without nuclear weapons. Take for example Vietnam. It is a socialist country without a nuclear arsenal, but nobody bothers this country. Your father perhaps wanted to contain the US and surpass South Korea with its nuclear capacity, but it was sheer nonsense. His true motivation was to bind the internal esprit de corps in order to sustain his power. Your father’s dream was simply a wild-goose chase after all. The Soviet Union fell apart even with the possession of a enormous stock pile of nuclear weapons.  
We have to worry about the safety measures of the nuclear facilities. If you fail in a missile test, you can recover from the technical problems through further research. But if you fail to insure a nuclear safety, the radioactivity will annihilate a vast area. The Chinese and US nuclear experts are now worrying about the outdated Yongbyon nuclear facility that might cause a devastating radioactive leak.
I am a Japanese citizen now and as a foreigner it would seem overbearing to worry about your country, but I have a dream. If we could somehow link Japan and North Korea by an undersea tunnel, we will be able to reach Pyongyang in half a day by train, have lunch and return to Beijing the same day. There are no technical problems that we cannot overcome. If Japan, South Korea, and China agree to provide the technology and economic assistance to reconstruct North Korea, I’m sure that it can bring about mutually beneficial results. 

About the Author
Ri Sotetsu is professor of sociology at Ryukoku University, Kyoto; his specialty is modern history of East Asia and media history. The son of ethnic Koreans residing in Heilongjiang province, he was born in 1959 and educated in China. He lived in China and worked as a journalist for a time before going to Japan, where he earned a doctorate(Ph.D.) degree in journalism at Sophia University. He is a Japanese citizen. In 1998 he was appointed assistant professor at Ryukoku University and became professor in 2005. He is a prolific writer of articles and books studying the history of journalism in the former Manchuria and in Japanese-occupied Korea and analyzing current affairs in North and South Korea. Among his major works (all in Japanese) are: Kim Jong-Il to Kim Jong-Eun no shotai (On the Identity of Kim Jong-Il and Kim Jong-Eun; Bungei Shunju), Park Geun-hye no chosen: Mukuge no hana ga saku toki (Park Geun-hye’s Challenge: When the Hibiscus Blooms; Chuo Koron Shinsha), and Higashi-Ajia no aidentetei: Ni-Chu-Kan wa koko ga chigau (Identity in East Asia: Here Is How Japan, China, and Korea Differ; Gaifusha).