In the perspective of contemporary society, especially international relations, there is a view that the path Japan should take is divided into two. It is a path based on the Japan-US alliance in line with existing routes, while Japan is a member of Asia, and strengthening the relationship with China will lead to new development. To be precise, it is not a branch, but to put emphasis on the United States or shift the center of gravity to Asia.
There is a view that the recent territorial disputes with neighboring countries are attributable to the fact that their relationship with the United States has become a monolith. Therefore, even if the benefits of the Asia-Pacific era are ignored, it should not be denied that strengthening relations with the United States will lead to stability and peace.
As Japan’s course is explored in the triangular relationship between Japan, the United States, and Japan, I would like to present a unique issue. It is to strengthen relations with the EU, especially with Germany, even though Japan can not enter the EU. Why is it Germany?
The industrial structures of Japan and Germany are similar. Considering that we have enriched the country by exporting high value-added products, being skeptical of nuclear power and promoting soft energy such as solar light and wind power, and taking into consideration the national character of being a defeated country and diligence If this is the case, Japan-German relations may not be considered to be the most similar in the world.
When the think tank of Washington held the symposium the other day in Tokyo, one of the panelists stated that the real effective exchange rate in Germany has not changed much over time, but that of Japan is twice as strong as Germany . Due to the current appreciation of the yen, exports can not be expanded unless Germany makes double efforts. The real effective exchange rate with Korea seems to be in the most severe situation.
German cars seem to be increasing significantly in Japan as well. Germany has the advantage of the euro by building economies of different industrial structures and the EU, and Germany, which has the technology to manufacture high value-added products, has a dominant position. Germany has increased export competitiveness in terms of exchange rates, and Japan is at a disadvantage.
I remember that there was an argument that it would be 1 euro and 1 dollar 100 yen as a step before the introduction of the euro. In the relationship between the yen and the euro, more than 10 years have passed, and although there has been a large exchange rate fluctuation on the way, there is no such exchange rate fluctuation now. Japan’s exchange policy coordinated with the euro area will affect the dollar and can not shift to a weaker yen.
The negative aspect of the floating exchange rate system is that the spread of exchange rate fluctuations has increased the economy that has diverged from the real gambling economy. The correction of the floating exchange rate will be necessary to correct the gambling-like global economy. We think that it is important to strengthen the relationship with Japan and Germany with similar industrial structure as the starting point.
At the beginning, he said that the world thinks that the path Japan should take is the alternative between the United States and China. Japan’s TPP problem is also separated by keeping pace with the US strategy, or by saying that it is premature. A manifesto stuck to the short-term interests of the people in front of the national elections is making a difference.
However, in the current situation where a long-term government is actually desired, a vision of a politician and a political party who are clear of political, economic, social and technological changes looking forward to at least four years is required. In particular, 2012 is a year of changing elections in which the world leaders have changed, and Russia, North Korea, China, the United States, Korea, and all other countries that have a major impact on Japan’s stability are long-term governments.
Japan is the world’s third largest economy, located halfway between the world’s two largest countries, the United States and China. A new paradigm may shift by exploring close ties with Germany, the EU champion, among the powers of the United States and China.
The similarities between Japan and Germany are diverse. The biggest difference between the two defeated countries is post-war processing. Japan has much to learn from Germany, such as German history views and recovery based on identity. I think that such an idea is also necessary to strengthen the relationship between Japan and Germany.