Tamotsu Nakano Column

エッセンスをまとめました。

1・マクルーハン理論の根本にある考え方は、「メディアはメッセージである」ということだ。普通メッセージというと「メディアによって伝達されてきた内容」をわれわれは考えるが、彼は「伝達そのものがメッセージである」と説くのである。

2・従ってメディア自体が人間の考え方を変え、人間の生活様式を変えてゆくことになる。同じ話題でも、それを伝達する媒体によって人間への影響が変わるのだ。

3・ 活字時代の人間は、一時に一つのことだけを見ていた。今は、同時に多様なメッセージを受けつつある。これまでの人間のように単に視覚だけを働かせるのではなく、五官すべてで、同時に多くのメディア・メッセージを受けているのである。

4・メディアを理解するとは、人間自体を理解することである。

5・人間およびその延長はすなわちメディアである。

6・メディアはマッサージなり。メディアというものはマッサージ師のように「人間をもみほぐす」活動的プロセスであって、でき上がった静的な製品ではないとマクルーハンは考えている。

7・過去のわたしのバラバラな体験と貧欲な好奇心が、マクルーハンに出会ったとき、一つのまとまりに変化することができた。私の周囲の人たちは「いったいなにが本職ですか？」と聞くが、わたしは「人間として現代に生きること」と考えてきた。マクルーハン流にいえば、「六十のジョブ(仕事)を総括するロール(役割り)に生きてきた」ということである。

“The World of McLuhan” Kenichi Takemura Kodansha 226 pages 1968/8

I summarized the essence.

1 · The idea underlying McLuhan theory is that “media is a message.” We usually think of “content transmitted by media” in terms of ordinary messages, but he preachs that “transmission itself is a message.”

2 ・ Therefore, the media itself changes the way of thinking of human beings and changes the way of life of human beings. Even in the same topic, the medium that transmits it changes the impact on humans.

3 · People of print age saw only one thing at a time. Now I am receiving various messages at the same time. Like all human beings, they do not just work with vision, but all five officials receive many media messages at the same time.

4 · Understanding media means understanding people themselves.

5 Human beings and their extensions are media.

6 · Media is a massage. The media is an active process like a masseuse who “looks at people,” and McKruhan thinks it is not a static product.

7 ・ My past experiences and my loneliness of curiosity, when I met McLuhan, were able to turn into a single unit. People around me ask, “What is your professional occupation?” But I have considered it as “living as a human being in the present age”. In the McLuhan style, it means that “I have lived in a role that summarizes
2029.1

グローバリゼーションとは何か スティーブ・ジョブズから学ぶ １．グローバリゼーション（ 英: Globalization）は、社会的あるいは経済的な連関が、旧来の 国家や地域などの境界を越えて、 地球規模に拡大して様々な変化を惹き起こす現象である。 グローバルな経済的なプラットフォームが創出　世界は平らだ　（The world is flat）トーマス・フリードマン　（ニューヨークタイムズ　外交コラムニスト） それはこれまでになかった世界のさまざまな場所から、様々な人々が、様々な方法でそこに登場して競争し、むすびつき、協力することを可能にするようになった。それは世界の歴史にかつて見たことのないこと。 　将来、富は、より多くの人々をこの新しい舞台に乗ることのできる教育とインフラを有する国、企業、個人に向かう。この舞台は時がたつにつれてすべてのものを変えてしまうだろう、というのが私の主張。それはグーテンベルグの印刷機の発明と同じくらいに大きな出来事になるでしょう。
　ここにアジアが入ってくるのは、この舞台の形成がアジアの三つの大きな経済——インド、中国、そして旧ソ連の巨大な帝国——の開放と重なる。　これら３０億の人々は、グローバルな経済活動の場が平らになったまさにこのときに、かつてないほど、より直接的に、簡単に、安く競争し、結合し、協力することができるよう。 ２．主権国家体制 近代世界秩序の基本的枠組みである主権国家体制は、各国が 国民経済（経済的自立性の確立）をめざし、各国が固有の文化や価値、イデオロギーを確立して競いあうという諸特徴をもっている。このシステムの基礎は、16世紀から17世紀にかけてのヨーロッパで確立（ウェストファリア条約 1648年） ３．国際共同体 諸国家の相互依存性という結び付きを持った「国際共同体」（ 英: International community）という概念、国際公共利益。 国際連合（United Nations）は、 国際連合憲章の下に設立された国際機構である。国家の代表が192カ国で構成される国連を機能させている。世界の 安全保障と経済・ 社会の発展のために協力することを目的とする。 ４．地域主義 世界は米、欧、アジアの三極体制で構成されている。NAFTA, EU,ASEAN＋３． ＢＲＩＣｓ〈ブラジル、ロシア、インド、中国。 東アジアの雁行型発展。日本、NIES(4 tigers), ASEAN
５．世界市民主義、地球益、地球市民、世界連邦 コスモポリタニズム（ cosmopolitanism）は全世界の人々を自分の同胞ととらえる思想。世界市民主義・世界主義とも呼ばれる。コスモポリタニズムに賛同する人々をコスモポリタンと呼ぶ。 コスモポリタニズムの発展形態として世界国家構想が挙げられる。これは「人種・言語の差を乗り越えた世界平和には全ての国家を統合した世界国家を建設すべきである」という考え方に立って主張されたもので、カントも主張していた。 第二次世界大戦 末期において成立した 国際連合が戦争抑止力の低いことを痛感した世界の科学者・文化人たちがより強力な世界連邦の形成をすすめることで、世界から戦争を無くしていこうと決意し1946年 ルクセンブルクにおいて「世界連邦政府のための世界運動」を起こした。この運動には バートランド・ラッセル、 アルベルト・アインシュタイン、 アルベルト・シュバイツァー、 ウィンストン・チャーチル、湯川秀樹などが賛同
マーシャル・マクルーハン グローバル・ビレッジ マーシャル・マクルーハン が1962年の著書『グーテンベルクの銀河系』
マクルーハンによれば、電子的な マスメディア（ラジオ、テレビ等にはじまる）によって、それまで人々が コミュニケーション をおこなう障壁になっていた時間と空間の限界が取り払われ、地球規模で対話し、生活できるようになった。この意味で、電子的マスメディアによって地球全土がひとつの村に変貌した。 今日ではグローバル・ヴィレッジ（地球村）といえば主に、 インターネットと World Wide Webを指す。インターネットによって世界中の利用者が相互に連絡を取り合うことが可能になり、コミュニケーションがグローバル化した。同様に、ウェブを介して接続されたコンピュータは、人々の ウェブサイトを相互に結びつける。これによって文化の面でも、社会学的な意味で新しい構造が形成されることになる。
電子メディアを基礎とした「電子的な相互依存」の時代が始まるという。
マクルーハンの主張する論点のうち最も画期的だったのは、電子メディアは文字ではなく、話す・聞くという仕方で情報を伝えている、ということである。彼の考えは明らかに 1950 年代の アメリカのテクノロジーと文化から影響を受けている。実際、彼が好んで例に挙げるのは ジャズ、 ラジオ 、電話といったものだった。
本来の可能性としては、諸問題の解決に貢献する世界規模の フォーラムの形成に寄与し、新しい意味の 世界共同体の時代を切り開くこともできたはずなのである。
１００人の地球村

もし、現在の人類統計比率をきちんと盛り込んで、全世界を１００人の村に縮小するとどうなるでしょう。その村には・・・ 　５７人のアジア人
　２１人のヨーロッパ人
　１４人の南北アメリカ人
　８人のアフリカ人がいます 　５２人が女性です
　４８人が男性です　 　７０人が有色人種で
　３０人が白人 　７０人がキリスト教以外の人で
　３０人がキリスト教 　８９人が異性愛者で
　１１人が同性愛者 　６人が全世界の富の５９％を所有し、その６人ともがアメリカ国籍 　８０人は標準以下の居住環境に住み
　７０人は文字が読めません 　５０人は栄養失調に苦しみ
　1人が瀕死の状態にあり
　1人はいま、生まれようとしています 　1人は（そうたった1人）は大学の教育を受け
　そしてたった1人だけがコンピューターを所有しています 　もしこのように、縮小された全体図から私達の世界を見るなら、相手をあるがままに受け入れること、自分と違う人を理解すること、そして、そういう事実を知るための教育がいかに必要かは火をみるよりあきらかです。
マーシャル・マクルーハングローバル・ビレッ マーシャル・マクルーハンが 1962年の著書『グーテンベルクの銀河 マクルーハンによれば、電子的なマスメディア （ラジオ、テレビ等にはじまる）によって、それまで人々がコミュニケーションをおこなう障壁になっていた時間と空間の限界が取り払われ、地球規模で対話し、生活できるようになった。この意味で、電子的マスメディアによって地球全土がひとつの村に変貌した。

As we combine the above measures and proceed with the physical integration of the region, we should also keep in mind that we are building a system that can be integrated with other outside regions since Northeast Asia is striving to become an “open” symbiotic community.
It is of paramount importance to further development in Northeast Asia by promoting cooperative security on the basis of multilateral economic cooperation, rather than building a collective security based on military-related activities.
It would be possible to draw the most effective plan on international public goods through physical integration. There is existing infrastructure, such as transportation corridors including railways and roads in Northeast Asia. According to conventional development measures such as the UNDP’s country program or Japanese ODA, these development plans have been created mainly on the basis of each country’s focus and priority. However as a new method of developing integrated physical infrastructure effectively, a spatial development plan, which is a comprehensive development plan rather than based on each sector’s development, would be significantly more effective in Northeast Asia.
It would not be cost-effective, provided that various infrastructure plans, without integrating each infrastructure. In this context, it is indispensable to physically integrate infrastructure projects, in order to avoid a duplication or disconnection among the borders. For example, construction of communication optical fiber would be consolidated with construction of natural gas pipelines, electric power lines and existing transportation corridors.
A regional project, such as the Tumen River Development Program, should be promoted for the purpose of not only developing a special economic region, but also facilitating regional integration. Through these regional projects, one can expect to effectively connect cities or special economic zones along borders.
Components of a physical integration
The first major component required for the physical integration of Northeast Asia is a transportation corridor. It is important to rebuild a transportation network that is currently disconnected across the borders. As confrontation in Northeast Asia has been continuing for a long time, there is a lack of smooth transportation. It would be possible to create global transportation networks by rebuilding the disconnected areas such as the borders to North Korea. It would be possible to complete an appropriate global network crossing the Pacific Ocean, the Sea of Japan (the East Sea), Siberian land bridge and/or China land bridge, and the Atlantic Ocean.
The second major component is energy security. The Russian Far East reserves are abundant in natural resources, particularly natural gas, which is expected to be the most reliable energy for the 21st century. The Russian Far East holds approximately 30 percent of the world’s natural gas reserves. For energy security, the Northeast Asia natural gas pipeline project, including the lines from North Sakhalin to Hokkaido, North Sakhalin to Khabarovsk to Kyushu through the Korean peninsula, Yakutsk to China, Irkutsk to Beijing through Mongolia, provides the following benefits in this region in terms of energy security.
Natural gas is the most environmentally friendly energy source. It contributes to reducing acid rain problems in particular by increasing China’s dependence on natural gas than coal. The natural gas pipeline contributes to reducing the dependence on the Middle East, reducing the congestion of tankers crossing the Straits of Malacca. The natural gas pipeline, going through North Korea as a transit, contributes to increased confidence-building measures. A lesson learned during the Cold War in Europe shows that natural gas pipelines from Eastern Europe to Western Europe were never cut.
Northeast Asia needs mutual understanding and interdependence. However one of the major constraints for cooperation in this region is the lack of communication. It is expected that building a telecommunication network and promoting tourism development will help facilitate confidence-building measures through business, social and cultural exchanges.

Ford Foundation recently said human security is important in terms of encouraging person-to-person cooperation. Also, I think cooperative security and comprehensive security are important. Security has a lot of linkage between the military corrective security and cooperative security. All Japan has to promote is to realize cooperative security while maintaining the U.S.-Japan security treaty. Probably Japan’s military involvement in this region will be 20 or 30 percent, but a 70 percent effort should be concentrated on the cooperative security framework.
Towards physical integration
The grand design for Northeast Asia is aimed at generating stability and prosperity in the region, and it proposes to build a symbiotic community for achieving that goal. One way to build this symbiotic community is to promote physical integration within the region. The following items can be considered as measures to advance physical integration in Northeast Asia.
The first measure is to build a system of multinational infrastructure within the region as international public property. For maximum effectiveness and efficiency, the infrastructure necessary to enable steady regional development needs to be established beyond consideration of national boundaries. Such multilateral infrastructure should include transportation, energy supply, power sharing, and communication systems. To establish such an effective infrastructure at a national level is difficult; what needs to be done is to plan and implement a well-coordinated system for the whole Northeast Asia region.
The lesson we can learn in relation to such system development is that the railroad transport systems in Northeast Asia were planned and implemented at the national level, and this is now hindering the construction of an efficient rail system for the whole region. For example, while the rail track width for Russia and Mongolia is 1,524 mm, for China and North Korea it is 1,435 mm. For this reason, transshipment is required between China–Mongolia, China–Russia, and North Korea–Russia, and this is an obstacle to integration of a regional transport system (combined tracks with four rails have been introduced in some border areas and access to ports has been improved). In building a multinational infrastructure system, we must aim at the construction of an integrated regional system that allows for the efficient use of people, goods and resources in the region.
The second measure is to design and develop the infrastructure facilities of different sectors in an integrated manner. For example, it is more efficient to construct communication cables, power lines and natural gas pipelines in combination, so these facilities should be designed and implemented under a comprehensive regional infrastructure development plan.
The third measure is to achieve infrastructure integration through blanket development of certain areas and their communities. From this perspective, for example, the Tumen River comprehensive development plan can be reassessed and renewed with a new concrete plan. Furthermore, other plans for regional integration include the integration of surrounding areas along development axes (e.g., creating and expanding feeder roads from trunk roads) and promoting strongholds of development that cut across international borders.
The fourth measure deals with the integration of the “soft” components of infrastructure. For example, when a new transport system develops, there is a need for immigration, customs and quarantine systems to be developed as well. Moreover, what is called for is the development of an extensive public health and disease prevention system as well as an emergency medical system that can extend beyond national borders.
The fifth measure is the integration and coordination of research and development and capacity-building programs. In addition to promoting the industrial network and the development of the environmental network, the integration of capacity-building programs, such as higher education and technical and vocational training (including distance education via the Internet) may also be advanced.

The objective of the grand design is to create ideal development scenarios and also to create economic spheres like symbiotic communities we can share, while utilizing physical integration to build the national gas pipeline, international public transportation, telecommunication and so on. The largest hydropower dam at the Yalu River running between the border of North Korea and China was built more than 60 years ago and provides energy to North Korea and China.
As Japan had this kind of technology before the Second World War, I recommend bringing international public goods beyond the borders through multilateral cooperation. When we look at a picture of North Korea taken by satellite at night, we can see how North Korea is suffering from an energy crisis. The northern part of the Korean Peninsula is almost completely dark. We can see the constant light of international transportation corridors such as the Siberian railways. There are nine major international transportation corridors in Northeast Asia. But unfortunately, there are no appropriate connections beyond the borders.
Natural gas is the most environmentally friendly energy in the world. Russia and the Far East including west and east Siberia have 20 percent of the natural gas reserves in the world. China has been heavily dependent on coal for more than 70 percent of its energy. Therefore, we have been faced with serious environmental concerns such as acid rain or greenhouse effect. If China shifts from coal to natural gas, it is possible to solve the problem of this environmental issue. Today the natural gas pipeline is from Russian Far East, Mongolia, China, North Korea, South Korea and Japan.
There are two different types of multilateralism in Northeast Asia. One includes China, Central Asia and Russia. Another one is China and ASEAN through the overseas Chinese and the Tumen River Development Program led by the UNDP along the border of North Korea, the Russian Far East and China. UNIDO is involved in this project. Japan and the United States are not keen to support this project because it is a communist-led project. A Cold War structure still remains in this region, and the two different types of projects should be integrated. A Northeast Asia natural gas pipeline project is an ideal multilateral project because all six nations of Northeast Asia would be able to share energy resources reciprocally. And also we can build a telecommunication network, an electric power grid and a tourist development project. This approach has become very cost effective. Japanese ODA or UNDP country programs are based on the countries of priorities.
This is the problem in terms of duplication of hard infrastructure. It is better to have a spatial development project to connect border to border. We can create a cost effective project.
Proposal for a new international organization
How much does it cost to pursue this kind of large-scale project? It costs about $10 billion per year in the next ten to twenty years to create this kind of project. Ten billion dollars is very expensive, but compare that to the cost of reconstruction in Iraq, which will cost $20 billion annually in the next several years. North Korea is the most dangerous country in the world. North Korea is using a brinkmanship. The international community must maintain the position not to give in to North Korea’s blackmail. It’s better to prepare the road map based on preventive diplomacy or cooperative security and spend $10 billion.
If North Korea becomes a member of international financial institutions such as the Asian Development Bank,World Bank or European Bank for Reconstruction and Development in London, these three existing international organizations can provide $1.5 billion and the Japanese bilateral or private sector or several private sectors from all over the world can provide probably $1 billion. As $10 billion is needed, there is a shortfall of about $6 or $7 billion. Therefore, we propose to establish a new international organization in this region.
A new international organization is not easy to build. We must understand that East Asia has the potential to become one of the three poles, along with the EU and NAFTA. The locations of most international organizations are in New York, Washington, DC, Paris, Geneva and Vienna. There are no large international organizations in Asia, only the Asian Development Bank, in Manila, ESCAP in Bangkok, and the United Nations University in Tokyo.
If China builds an international organization, the rest of East Asia will deteriorate. Therefore, the best way is to establish a new international organization, which is able to share three different functions while three major countries such as China, Japan and South Korea are able to share mutual interests. It needs three windows to cover three different functions such as development, social and monetary functions:
Establishing a window for the development funds in China as China will be a major donor country for the development of North Korea.
Establishing a social factor in South Korea as South Korea needs huge amount of money for the unification of the Korean Peninsula.
Establishing monetary function in Japan because Japan is interested in stabilizing monetary functions from the experience of the East Asian financial crisis of 1997.
It is possible to establish one international organization called the East Asian Economic Social Development Organization with three different functions at three different locations

In an attempt to introduce a “grand design” of providing for a peace in the region, I would like to make an analogy to John F. Kennedy’s “Towards a Strategy of Peace” speech of June 1963 with my Twelve Point Agenda, which I believe contains essential elements to bring about new regional cooperation, such as the need to create a new regional multilateral organization, to the present-day context. There are also twelve factors in the design, including:
Cooperative security framework based on economic interdependence
Preventive diplomacy; multilateral progressive engagement posture
Symbiotic communities
Japan’s recognition of its history prior to World War II
Physical integration, providing international public goods
Energy security (e.g., natural gas pipelines and electric grids)
International railroad corridors
New regional international organization
U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK alliances as cornerstones to stabilize the region and become a backbone of a multilateral framework
Greater tolerance of religions
Intra-regional dialogues
Multilateral, progressive and constructive security posture
There exist three principal conceptual pillars that help accommodate these elements. A first pillar is spatial development. It is to strengthen the exchange of international public goods by physically integrating transport systems, such as railroads. A second pillar is physical integration. It aims to advance economic integration by connecting routes of economic interests—natural resources, communications networks, and transportation ties. Finally, there is regional integration, in which a grand strategy attempts to integrate local economies and provide for special economic zones.
The key tactic is Strategic ODA (Official Development Assistance). I stated that this strategy is instrumental in setting forth preventive diplomacy, addressing human security, or initiating the establishment of a regional economic sphere, all added up to provide for cooperative security framework. Further, Japan, in close association with other key regional players, such as China and South Korea, can play a significant role in organizing consultative relationships with the United States and the European Union to put together a global development plan.
A grand design would likely bring about a win-win situation, from which every regional actor can benefit, and consequently the likelihood of conflict would be dramatically reduced, as the regional players would be forced to decrease their military expenditures.

In the perspective of contemporary society, especially international relations, there is a view that the path Japan should take is divided into two. It is a path based on the Japan-US alliance in line with existing routes, while Japan is a member of Asia, and strengthening the relationship with China will lead to new development. To be precise, it is not a branch, but to put emphasis on the United States or shift the center of gravity to Asia.

There is a view that the recent territorial disputes with neighboring countries are attributable to the fact that their relationship with the United States has become a monolith. Therefore, even if the benefits of the Asia-Pacific era are ignored, it should not be denied that strengthening relations with the United States will lead to stability and peace.

As Japan’s course is explored in the triangular relationship between Japan, the United States, and Japan, I would like to present a unique issue. It is to strengthen relations with the EU, especially with Germany, even though Japan can not enter the EU. Why is it Germany?

The industrial structures of Japan and Germany are similar. Considering that we have enriched the country by exporting high value-added products, being skeptical of nuclear power and promoting soft energy such as solar light and wind power, and taking into consideration the national character of being a defeated country and diligence If this is the case, Japan-German relations may not be considered to be the most similar in the world.

When the think tank of Washington held the symposium the other day in Tokyo, one of the panelists stated that the real effective exchange rate in Germany has not changed much over time, but that of Japan is twice as strong as Germany . Due to the current appreciation of the yen, exports can not be expanded unless Germany makes double efforts. The real effective exchange rate with Korea seems to be in the most severe situation.

German cars seem to be increasing significantly in Japan as well. Germany has the advantage of the euro by building economies of different industrial structures and the EU, and Germany, which has the technology to manufacture high value-added products, has a dominant position. Germany has increased export competitiveness in terms of exchange rates, and Japan is at a disadvantage.

I remember that there was an argument that it would be 1 euro and 1 dollar 100 yen as a step before the introduction of the euro. In the relationship between the yen and the euro, more than 10 years have passed, and although there has been a large exchange rate fluctuation on the way, there is no such exchange rate fluctuation now. Japan’s exchange policy coordinated with the euro area will affect the dollar and can not shift to a weaker yen.

The negative aspect of the floating exchange rate system is that the spread of exchange rate fluctuations has increased the economy that has diverged from the real gambling economy. The correction of the floating exchange rate will be necessary to correct the gambling-like global economy. We think that it is important to strengthen the relationship with Japan and Germany with similar industrial structure as the starting point.

At the beginning, he said that the world thinks that the path Japan should take is the alternative between the United States and China. Japan’s TPP problem is also separated by keeping pace with the US strategy, or by saying that it is premature. A manifesto stuck to the short-term interests of the people in front of the national elections is making a difference.

However, in the current situation where a long-term government is actually desired, a vision of a politician and a political party who are clear of political, economic, social and technological changes looking forward to at least four years is required. In particular, 2012 is a year of changing elections in which the world leaders have changed, and Russia, North Korea, China, the United States, Korea, and all other countries that have a major impact on Japan’s stability are long-term governments.

Japan is the world’s third largest economy, located halfway between the world’s two largest countries, the United States and China. A new paradigm may shift by exploring close ties with Germany, the EU champion, among the powers of the United States and China.

The similarities between Japan and Germany are diverse. The biggest difference between the two defeated countries is post-war processing. Japan has much to learn from Germany, such as German history views and recovery based on identity. I think that such an idea is also necessary to strengthen the relationship between Japan and Germany.

The Meiji Restoration, which is a rare revolution in the world similar to the bloodless revolution achieved by a spirited devil. It may be that changes in the international situation and confidence-building that will revolutionize North Korea earlier than expected so that South Korea ’s President Park`s remark will be made conscious of the unification of the Korean peninsula.

I would like to analyze the possibility of the revolution in North Korea from the rhythm of the history.

It is thought that the Sepoi revolt (1857-59) by Indian ethnic rebellion against British colonial rule produced the chain of the late 19th century revolution. The American Civil War (1861-65), which began slavery two years after the Sepoi uprising, broke out. It is believed that during this period, the Meiji Restoration (1867-68) was realized, in which the arms dealers were overwhelmed and the Shogunate was overshadowed by lower class warriors under the influence of the Civil War.

Ryoma Sakamoto and others have global insights and it is thought that the weapons left behind in the Civil War were successfully used in the Japanese revolution. The source of the series of revolutions of the Repo, the Civil War, and the Meiji Restoration is the resistance and revolt against the rule and power, and the revolution was realized because it was possible to supply weapons to the resistance forces.

If we apply the rhythm of history, which is the source of these revolutions, to the current North Korea, we can see the cause of the revolution in North Korea with extremely high probability. First, the execution of his uncle, Mr. Zhang, reduced his allegiance to Kim Jong-un First Secretary in order number 2, and resistance forces became increasingly united. Second, Liberia’s President Dou, Romania’s President Cau シ ェ escu, President of Iraq’s President Hussein, Libya’s Katafis al-Maje’s fear politics and even executing the people proves that it is impossible to suppress the common people’s resistance doing. Thirdly, the execution of Mr. Zhang, who played a role as a conduit with China, the lifeline of North Korea, lost the backing of China. Fourth, the revolution breaks out internally. The market runs out of food, and a small riot of the common people brings out the revolutionary factor. When the cause of instability and signs of revolution appear, a power dissatisfied with Kim Jong Il will make a revolution.

The forces that evoke the revolution of North Korea are outside. First, the North Korean revolution is likely to play a major role as North Korean revolution played an important role in the Meiji Restoration. This is because there is no force over North Koreans to facilitate negotiations with foreign countries when a revolution breaks out inside North Korea. Second, the revolution of North Korea is the greatest opportunity for South Korea to reunify the Korean peninsula, and it is also the greatest crisis with the risk factor of conflict. Third, weapons are essential to the revolution. The United States, Russia, China or military complexes, weapons traders provide weapons that evoke the revolution of North Korea.

Both in North Korea and in changes in the international environment surrounding North Korea, the factors that foster the revolution of North Korea are extremely high. It is common for the revolution to produce many sacrifices, including the common people. However, in the Meiji Restoration a bloodless revolution was achieved. The leading actors were the dissidents. In that sense as well, it is considered important to provide an environment in which a truly talented revolutionary can get active from the North Korean.

The momentum for unification of the Korean Peninsula is being born in Korea. The momentum is worthy of the nation’s fortune that far exceeds the momentum of holding the Olympics. Japan’s unification of the Korean peninsula through Korea, and by unifying similar to the bloodless revolution, can not offset the unproductive movements compared with the unification of the Korean peninsula such as history and territory problems. It is important to consider the North Korean revolution, the unification of the Korean peninsula, and the solution to the abduction issue, while making it hard for the conflict to come before anything.

I recently joined the UNIDO Tokyo office as head of the investment forum hosted by the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) held in Hunchun, China. After joining the Forum at Hunchun, I visited Rajin Sonbong of North Korea located 80 kilometers from Hunchun in the Sea of ​​Japan. Although I visited Rajin Senbong for the first time in three years, noticeable changes were not seen in the state of the town or the country scenery. North Korean map Rajin Senbong in the mouth of the Tumen River in North Korea has a scenic landscape, a vast corn field spreading in the way to the Chinese border, suffering from hunger as reported on Japanese television There was no figure of Korea.

Although not to say all, it seems that the report of North Korea by many Japanese presses is lacking sense of the balance between light and dark secreted by the current North Korea. In fact, while facing the economic crisis and the food crisis, North Korea is advancing the development of the world’s most advanced technology called missiles and artificial satellites. Here I will touch on the appearance of North Korean bureaucracy that Japanese media does not draw to know the country of North Korea.
● Meet me for forgetting my seven years
A 30-year-old gentleman in North Korea with a smart thing like a diplomat who remembered Nakano-san, spoke to me in English. I could not remember immediately but it was a familiar face. Nostalgia came up as well as the word “I negotiated in Vienna seven years ago.” I was engaged in the development of the North Korea and the Tumen River basin as an officer in the Asia-Pacific region of UNIDO with headquarters in Vienna at the time. This North Korean gentleman was Kim, the first secretary of the North Korean embassy in Vienna, who frequently visited my UN office and exchanged views on the Tumen River Development etc.
After that, I left the United Nations and was involved in the development of Northeast Asia from the Japanese side, but Mr. Kim became the UNIDO investment promotion officer from the embassy. As an officer at UNIDO Headquarters, Mr. Kim came to Rajin, Sengbong from Vienna, but he talked about forgotten each other for seven years. Of course, I talked about not only the development of the Tumen River but also the North’s missile test. Foreigners brought flowers in a constructive story under the super-national sense of unity, beyond the walls of Japan and North Korea, by having seated in a place to discuss the UN peaceful purpose of world peace It is.
● Building a network that is indispensable for analyzing the situation in North Korea
Kim’s father served the Foreign Minister of North Korea until last month, and now he is an aide of the Kim Jong Il National Defense Committee chairman and the money I was with He seems to be the most promising diplomat in the future. I happened to be responsible for North Korea as an officer of UNIDO, and I was able to build a relationship with the senior officials of the North through the United Nations, but as we continue to participate in development issues in Northeast Asia, this UN I would like to take care of my personal connections.
Many of the North Korean watchers in Japan, especially those who analyze fragments of the North Korean problem in particular, hear that North Korea can not enter the country smoothly. As a word of “seeing is believing 100 words”, in order to know the current situation of North Korea it is important to go to the site and see the site as much as possible. In addition, it will be possible to analyze more accurately North Korea situation by building a network that can negotiate.
What I felt when I was in contact with a senior official in the North during the United Nations is that the North Korean diplomat can be trained because it is beaten by the international community due to suspicion of nuclear weapons and diplomatic officials It means that sympathy will be born for the effort. I worked at a United Nations agency, a US government think tank, a local government think tank, and lived in Asia, Africa, Europe, the United States etc. for more than ten years and touched many people, but from an international perspective I think the North Korean diplomat really is excellent. Analysis of North-East Asian development, especially North Korea problem, it is important to comprehensively analyze trends of North Korea from the multilateral perspective, ie from a wide range of networks, from the United Nations, the United States, Japan, Tottori etc. Seem.

In an attempt to introduce a “grand design” of providing for a peace in the region, I would like to make an analogy to John F. Kennedy’s “Towards a Strategy of Peace” speech of June 1963 with my Twelve Point Agenda, which I believe contains essential elements to bring about new regional cooperation, such as the need to create a new regional multilateral organization, to the present-day context. There are also twelve factors in the design, including:
Cooperative security framework based on economic interdependence
Preventive diplomacy; multilateral progressive engagement posture
Symbiotic communities
Japan’s recognition of its history prior to World War II
Physical integration, providing international public goods
Energy security (e.g., natural gas pipelines and electric grids)
International railroad corridors
New regional international organization
U.S.-Japan and U.S.-ROK alliances as cornerstones to stabilize the region and become a backbone of a multilateral framework
Greater tolerance of religions
Intra-regional dialogues
Multilateral, progressive and constructive security posture

There exist three principal conceptual pillars that help accommodate these elements. A first pillar is spatial development. It is to strengthen the exchange of international public goods by physically integrating transport systems, such as railroads. A second pillar is physical integration. It aims to advance economic integration by connecting routes of economic interests—natural resources, communications networks, and transportation ties. Finally, there is regional integration, in which a grand strategy attempts to integrate local economies and provide for special economic zones.

The key tactic is Strategic ODA (Official Development Assistance). I stated that this strategy is instrumental in setting forth preventive diplomacy, addressing human security, or initiating the establishment of a regional economic sphere, all added up to provide for cooperative security framework. Further, Japan, in close association with other key regional players, such as China and South Korea, can play a significant role in organizing consultative relationships with the United States and the European Union to put together a global development plan.

A grand design would likely bring about a win-win situation, from which every regional actor can benefit, and consequently the likelihood of conflict would be dramatically reduced, as the regional players would be forced to decrease their military expenditures.